Will Aaron Rodgers join the Jets? Transaction cost for QB

It’s almost an anniversary when the Jets flew the legendary Packers quarterback to Cleveland and shoved him into a small interview room at the Browns’ stadium before a preseason game to introduce him as their next quarterback.

“This is unique,” ​​said Brett Favre on that day, August 7, 2008.

That marriage worked until it didn’t work. The Jets started the 2008 season 8-3, Favre was injured (but played through it) but lost 4 of their last 5 games and coach Eric Mangini was fired. The Packers wanted to trade Favre.

Aaron Rogers, 25 years old.

Fifteen years later, the legendary 39-year-old Packers quarterback (Rogers, 4-time MVP, 1-time Super Bowl, 10-time Pro Bowl selection) is stepping away to make way for a young quarterback waiting on the wing. (Jordan Love) … The Jets are on the first line.

Rodgers said he has not made any decisions about whether he will play in 2023 or whether he wants to play for Green Bay. Discussion if the Packers seriously consider moving him.

“Every deal is speculation until I decide what I want to do next,” Rodgers said on “The Pat McAfee Show” Tuesday.

But what if Rodgers continues to play and become available? Expect the Jets to chase hard. What would it look like?

Rodgers and the Jets have everything to consider.

Will the Packers actually trade him?

athleticMatt Schneidman, who covers the Packers, wrote of Rodgers on Tuesday: The Packers still seem to believe that Rodgers has the best shot at winning right now. Whether that was an endorsement against Rodgers or an indictment against Love remains unknown. If the Packers win their second Super Bowl with Rodgers, it’ll be worth it.

But Rodgers sounded ready for the possibility of playing for another team when he spoke to McAfee on Tuesday.

“If they feel it’s in the team’s best interest to move forward, then do it,” he said. “Again, it won’t upset me, and it won’t make me feel like a victim. I will have no animosity towards the team. I love the organization, I love the city, I love the region. … I have a lot of love for what happens in Green Bay. And I want to end there. I might have ended up there. who knows?”

After one of his worst seasons in a while, the 39-year-old Rodgers is still likely to turn a decent trade return. Plus, the Packers are well off the $110 million left over in the extension he signed last offseason, so the quarterback (Love) can still afford the finances while still on a rookie contract.

What does it take to get Rodgers?

Here are the returns on recent notable quarterback trades:

• The Falcons traded Matt Ryan, 37, to the Colts for a 3rd round pick.
• The Seahawks traded Russell Wilson (34) and a 4th round pick to the Broncos with 2 1st round picks, 2 2nd round picks, 1 5th round pick, 3 players (QB Drew Lock, DL Shelby Harris, TE Noah Fant) and traded. .
• The Texans traded Deshaun Watson (27) and a 6th round pick to the Browns for 3 1st round picks, 1 third round pick and 2 4th round picks.
• The Colts traded Carson Wentz (30) and a second round pick to the Commanders for a second round pick and two third round picks.
• In 2021, the Lions traded Matthew Stafford (then 33) to the Rams for two first round picks, one third round pick, and QB Jared Goff.

By that standard, it would be surprising if Rogers were traded for fewer or more first-round picks. But it would be smart for any acquisition team to condition the deal in case Rogers retires after 2023.

Are the Jets willing to trade that much? Owner Woody Johnson is willing to do anything to upgrade his quarterback and get the Jets back in the playoffs. The idea of ​​Rodgers wearing a Jets uniform and that it would help sell tickets piqued Johnson’s interest.

Salary cap impact

Rodgers has a complicated contract. Over the Cap has a helpful explainer. But the important part for the Jets is that all deals are likely to be made after June 1st (to save Green Bay money) and are likely to be inherited. Initial caps are $15.8 million in 2023 and $32.5 million in 2024.

OTC expects the Jets to cross the upper limit, but can get to the lower limit quickly by restructuring contracts (CJ Mosley, John Franklin-Myers) or cutting players to save (Corey Davis, Carl Lawson, Braxton Berrios, Jordan Whitehead). there is.

How much did Rodgers actually have left in the tank?

Rodgers’ skills are on the decline, which is understandable at this point in his career. He won MVP in 2020 and 2021, but in 2022 he threw for the fewest yards (3,695 yards) in a season in which he played at least 15 games. He also threw for the most interceptions (12) since his first year as a starter in 2008.

In the Week 18 shootout against the Lions, which had one of the worst passing defenses this season, Rodgers recorded just 205 yards and one touchdown. The Packers lost 20-16 to finish the season 8-9.

Football Outsiders ranked Rodgers 21st among QBs in Average Defensive Adjustment Value (DVOA). He also ranks 25th in extra projected points (EPA) per dropback per TruMedia, just ahead of Jets quarterback Mike White (26th).

He also suffered a broken thumb and rib and knee injuries during the season.

Why Rodgers is a good fit for the Jets

The Jets feel like a quarterback and improved offensive line out of competition. And Rodgers, even if he’s on the decline, will be better than any quarterback the Jets have hired for a long time. His star power is great enough to potentially attract other players to join the Jets as well.

Rodgers also has a close relationship with Zach Wilson. Wilson has been sitting back and learning from Rogers for a year or two. If the Jets don’t walk away from him this offseason, that won’t be the worst.

Wilson is “very talented,” Rodgers told McAfee. “I think a little humility at various times in our careers is a good thing for all of us. … I hope whoever they decide to go as coordinator will work with him and break down a lot of the basics for him and get him playing in time. I think he’s talented enough to have a long career in the league,” he said.

Would Rodgers really want to come to the Jets?

If Rodgers is able, the Jets have every intention of engaging in these discussions. Rogers doesn’t have a no-trade clause, but to some degree that could dictate where he ends up.

“I want to be part of a team that’s going to win a championship,” Rogers said Tuesday.

Does Rodgers View the Jets as Super Bowl Contenders? It definitely has some charm. The Jets have a legitimate #1 wide receiver (Garrett Wilson) who is one of the NFL’s best defenders and an impressive young core talent.

However, there are also many cracks in the armor that Rogers can tell if he looks closely.

By the end of 2022, the messed up offensive line may need a complete rework. The only locks to return as starters are Laken Tomlinson and Alijah Vera-Tucker.

Rodgers highlighted Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall when talking about Zach Wilson. But Hall will come out of an ACL injury in the fall and he won’t look like the same player right away. Other wide receivers expected to return (Elijah Moore, Denzel Mims) had lackluster seasons. And on defense, the Jets have holes at linebacker and safety and may have to part with Lawson or Mosley for cap reasons.

Furthermore, the Jets are having trouble hiring an offensive coordinator to replace Mike LaFleur. Saleh has a long list of candidates already in talks or planning, but no one appears to be a frontrunner. There is a belief around the league that any team that hires Nathaniel Hackett will get the better of Rodgers because of his close relationship. The Jets interviewed Hackett for the job and he’s worked with Saleh before, but it’s unclear if he’ll be returning to coaching anytime soon after ending a disastrous 15-game tenure as the Broncos’ head coach. Hackett was previously the Packers’ offensive coordinator.

It also doesn’t help if there’s a perception that Saleh and his staff could be fired if the Jets don’t make the playoffs in 2023.

The Jets’ best hope for acquiring Rodgers is to build a compelling offense, fix their offensive line, and nurture a roster that gives Rodgers a reason to commit to the team for at least a year, ideally a year or more.

The Jets may decide that waiting for a Rodgers situation is too risky. Instead, they can track down Raiders quarterback Derek Carr, who they can get right after the Super Bowl.

Rodgers’ other competition

Another factor: The Jets won’t be the only team keeping an eye on Rodgers. ESPN reported that the Packers will not be looking to trade him within the NFC.

If this is true, the following teams could be suitable candidates for Rodgers.

• Raiders: Reuniting with wide receiver Davante Adams.
• Dolphins: Best supporting cast on this list.
• Patriots: Not a better overall roster than the Jets, but they have Bill Belichick, a top defensive and offensive line.
• Titans: Derrick Henry, good coaching and solid defense – although seriously lacking in pass catchers.
• Colts: A confused team, but there are some spots on offense and defense.
• Ravens: Moved from Lamar Jackson.

If the Packers traded within the NFC, the Giants, Buccaneers, Saints, Panthers, and 49ers all make varying degrees of meaning as potential destinations.

(Top photo: John Fisher / Getty Images)